Could Japan have defeated the US in the Pacific?

Well here's my take

The Imperial Japanese Navy and Imperial Japanese Army were challenging the following countries, previously occupied by France, the British Empire the Netherlands, and others were supported by the US, the rest were Australia and New Zealand along a bunch of Military outposts all over the Pacific by either sides.

Korea
China
Philippines
Viet-Nam
Hong Kong
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Laos
Taiwan
Australia
New Guinea
New Zealand
Cambodia
Burma
Thailand

All the way to India

Japan had a total Embargo on Raw Materials that threatened their own Economy, Industry and Military. As if things weren't bad enough, Japan's Assets abroad are frozen.

When Admiral Yamamoto was asked if Japan had a chance against the US, all he said was "During the First 6 Months we can go on a rampage, beyond that I don't guarantee anything" This was why the Pearl Harbor sneak attack was planned, and while the attack by the Royal Navy in the Italian Fleet in Taranto (Italy) with the Italians getting massive losses as a consequence and ended up being a knockout punch to the Italians, Japan had already developped the Torpedo we all heard about the December 7th 1941, and was hoping to take out the entire American Pacific Fleet in one swoop.

At first the IJN was planning to use only 4 of their Aircraft Carriers and Two Battleships with the Escort details (Cruisers and Destroyers) while they had 6 Aircraft Carriers available and decided to use ALL of them in that attack.

The plan was that the Carrier Force was supposed to hit Pearl Harbor the exact day and hour Japan's Embassador would give his War Declaration to Washington DC.

Still, with most of the IJN Command and the Emperor reluctant to go this far, The Carrier Force would wait near the Kuril Islands north of Japan, a Code Message "Climb Mount Hijitaka" which would mean as "War has been decided" meanwhile in Tokyo the Japanese were trying to find a political solution yet they failed.

In Washington DC, American Naval Intelligence was already aware of the Japanese Plans but because of Divisions in the Command Level between the Army, Navy, Politicians and the President, the Targets were never warned about these, or were warned too late.

In order not to be detected, the Carrier Force was ordered to sail a long distance away from the usual Pacific traffic and were ordered to stay silent on radio. If a solution would have been found without going to war, the Carrier Force was to return to Japan and not attack.

What costed the Japanese dearly was the Carrier Force's Commanding Officer (Admiral Nagumo, an expert in Torpedoes and night Battleship battles but incompetent in Aircraft Carrier Battles, the real rising star on Japanese Aircraft Carriers was Admiral Yamaguchi, Japanese Military Commands were given to the Highest Ranked Senior Officers instead of being given to those who had more competence in the type of ships they would be in charge).

To make it worst, the American Aircraft Carriers (USS Enterprise and USS Lexington) had left Pearl Harbor to deliver Fighters to Wake and Midway, the US Navy had the USS Saratoga in San Fransisco, the USS Yorktown and USS Wasp in the Atlantic, the USS Hornet was still under construction at that time.

7th December 1941: the Pearl Harbor strike begins but because of too much secrecy in the Japanese Embassy in Washington DC, the timing is off from the Plans despite the fact that the hope for hitting the place with a surprise effect was succesful.

Theoritically with The bulk of the Pacific Fleet out of action for a long time in Pearl Harbor, the Destroyers and Submarine still destroyed, the Supply Depots destroyed, and the Carriers out of fuel somewhere, and the shipyards and docks destroyed during a bunch of succesive waves. The Japanese would have Destroyed almost the entire Pacific Fleet and a Naval Base in the process, it would have been possible for Japan to at least force the American government to sue for peace, while Japan could have continued their Expansion Policy in Asia.

But the results ended up like this: 8 Battleships out of action, Admiral Kimmel sacked, a LOT of American Fighters from the Navy, Army and Marine Corps destroyed, and an overwhelming number of casualties all over the place. While Japan lost only 29 Aircraft and a bunch of Submarines.

I think we know what happens next.

If the results had ended up like the Japanese were hoping, then the USS Lexington and USS Enterprise would have runned out of fuel and have been put out of action technically, Japan would have had their way before the American homeland industries could have kicked in, which they did following the Japanese defeat in Midway and Guadalcanal

They would have had to carry out thier lightning strikes alot harder to knock the US out of the war.

Very good post Adro. But I don't think Japan ever could have beaten the U.S. in war; first of all, the United States is NOT the type of nation to "sue for peace", at any time, never mind after such a revenge-inspiring disaster. Secondly, Japan would never have been able to push the U.S. entirely out of the Pacific; they would have not only had to make a successful invasion and conquest of Hawaii, they would have also had to conquer Australia, and all other British holdings, to deny the Allies a counter jump-off position. Their army was much too heavily involved in China to really consider an invasion of either of these territories, never mind the West Coast, to force a U.S. surrender. Thus, I think that Japan started a fight it couldn't win.

Not only that, but Japan had a flawed strategy to begin with. They tried to knock out the U.S. Pacific Fleet at the outset, and then go on rampage. But, their strategic aims for the war as soon as the U.S. got itself together industrially, were practically, sit back and wait, which was suicide for anyone in their position. All Japanese offensives of early 1942 prove this; it seems their main goals were to create a strong defensive barrier in the Pacific surrounding the home islands. The Midway Offensive was exactly that: it was basically to widen the protective barrier around Japan.

Japan had a flawed strategy that doomed them to defeat; but looking at it from this perspective, it was foolish for them to even attempt war with the United States of America.

It's hard to say if Japan's could have defeated the US, the only way to do that would have been from what Admiral Yamamoto said "for our soldiers to march down in Washington DC"

Admiral Yamamoto had already spent many times in the US and he really was reluctant to even think about such War and knew who he was dealing with.

At first the Imperial Japanese Army tried to assassinate Admiral Yamamoto but he was told about the IJA's plans by his old friend Admiral Yoshida who back then was Japan's Navy Minister and as an excuse gives some orders to have Yamamoto shipped out to sea with a bunch of Battleships as a Command.

The idea to go to War against the US was in fact brought up by General Tojo from the Imperial Japanese Army and who was Japan's War Minister, the Emperor didn't have any political power in his own Empire, except to have a say in Japan's policy, including Military Affairs but other than religiously speaking had, he didn't really had much except to approve the plans, he was only a facade to his own people, the War Minister and the Prime Minister were the real rulers of Japan during the War in the Pacific.
In both cases, it turned out to be General Tojo.

In fact, Admiral Nagumo was severely criticised by many Japanese Navy Officers, including the Imperial Japanese Navy's top Commanders, and following Japan's defeat in Midway, he was almost sacked because his Commanding Competence was questionned due to the losses Japan lost in this battle despite going on full force, (Admiral Yamaguchi KIA, Many IJN's top Carrier Bomber and Fighter crews, a huge losses of experienced IJN Specialists, and 4 Aircraft Carriers along with a Heavy Cruiser, against only one American Aircraft Carrier and loads of Air to Air losses from the US Navy, Army and Marine Corps. The only American Aircraft Carrier destroyed was sunk by Admiral Yamaguchi's Fighter and Bomber crews and many of the American Air to Air losses were due to lacks of experience from the Americans Fighter and Bomber crews) but instead of getting sacked Admiral Nagumo ended up with some Administrative Work which is often inflicted to Military Commanders when their actions was unnacceptable.

The defeat in Midway was seen as a huge humiliation by the IJN on every levels, it also gave the American Armed Forces a huge morale boost since they were against the strongest fleet they've ever seen in the Pacific, yet they defeated it.


The plans for the conquest of Australia was the purpose of the IJN's showing up in the first Corale Sea Battle, starting with taking over Port Moresby, Australia would be next, yet the First Battle of the Corale Sea ended up as a stalemate, but, even a stalemate wasn't good enough to Japan since it meant no take over Port Moresby and no conquest of Australia.

During the War in Asia, Japan made it to the gates of India (I think), but still had trouble in China and the Philippines, at least they had decent supply lines and had won in Singapore, which was seen as impossible by the British, the Royal Navy's task force also was sunk when they thought they were beyond any bomber's range.

The Japanese (following the defeat in Guadalcanal) were still willing to fight (at least on the troops level) but it was clear that they had lost the advantage beyond Guadalcanal and wouldn't go on the offensive again, the Japanese Industry couldn't match the American Industry and Japan had lost most of their experienced Air Crews in battle, the rest was still on the Battlefield, so the new batch was lacking experienced Instructors.

When the War in the Pacific was nearly over, most Japanese Air Crews were Amateurs by Comparison to their American counter-part with outdated Fighters and Bombers such as the Zero and the Betty Bomber, and let's not even think about their Tanks.

The Battle of Midway is commonly recognized as a major American victory, but it was really far beyond that; in a single battle, Japan's four largest aircraftcarriers were sunk, along with the great majorities of their pilots and almost every last plane (there are reports that some managed to reach Wake Island, thus reaching safety). This, coupled with the failure to take Port Moresby, spelled disaster for Japan in the long-run.

On top of that, at Pearl Harbor, Japanese pilots had failed to destroy either the submarine pens or the feul tanks, and left the naval yard in nearly perfect working order, thus leaving all the necessary functions of a naval base intact, and allowing military operations to resume out of Pearl immediately afterwards. Thus, the Japanese might have temporarily reduced the Pacific Fleet's ability to fight, but not the United States' ability to wage war in the Pacific in the slightest.